Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard

The bottom line, in plain English

Every strategy gained today except momentum, and a plain buy-and-hold is still beaten only by a simple rebalance-everything approach — no market-timing rule is ahead, which is the expected, healthy result.

Risk level today

🟡 Watch — caution; conditions are elevated, but this is not panic

What this means

Conditions are elevated enough that a regular saver should slow down and think about protection before taking more risk.

What to keep in mind today

Do not chase a bounce just because prices fell.
Do not use borrowed money or leverage to add risk.
Check whether too much of your money is tied to one volatile stock, sector, or theme.

Why we think this

The latest logged stress gauge is Watch, based on 2 calm, 5 watch, 0 stress readings.

What we still do not know

A Watch day does not tell us yet whether this will fade quickly or turn into a longer drawdown.

Regime context

Yield curve + credit

calm — 2s10s +0.50pp, HY OAS 2.73pp

Equity sensor breadth (as of 2026-08-14)

calm — 91.7% of sensors above their 200d average

Reporting / releases, next 7 days

4 checkpoints on the calendar

Mirrors the day's logged stress gauge, the latest equity-sensor breadth read, and the week-ahead earnings/macro calendar — no new numbers are computed here.

Equal weight is ahead at $102,759 — that's +0.4% versus simply buying and holding the basket.

Leaderboard

Rank 1 · current leader

Equal weight

keeps an equal amount in every name, evening it out each run.

value (NAV)

$102,759

return

+2.8%

vs. buy & hold

+0.4%

max drawdown

-8.7%

volatility

21.3%

Sharpe

0.84

trades

423

Rank 3

Buy-the-dip in steps

keeps cash in reserve and buys the basket in steps as it falls from its peak.

value (NAV)

$101,747

return

+1.8%

vs. buy & hold

-0.6%

max drawdown

-5.2%

volatility

12.8%

Sharpe

0.84

trades

423

Rank 5

Top-3 momentum

rides the three strongest names of the last few months; the rest sits in cash.

value (NAV)

$86,313

return

-13.6%

vs. buy & hold

-16.0%

max drawdown

-24.1%

volatility

47.2%

Sharpe

-1.50

trades

155

— ordering only, not a skill finding (46 sessions so far). These strategies all trade the same basket and move together closely, so the gaps between them are far smaller than the day-to-day noise; a strategy on top today is not evidence it is better.

Leaderboard comparison

benchmark

Buy & hold — $102,327 now

current leader

Equal weight — $102,759 now

strongest challenger

Buy-the-dip in steps — $101,747 now

Comparison limited to the benchmark, current leader, and strongest challenger so the shared dashboard stays readable on mobile. Shared axis $92,014–$102,759 · 2026-06-19 → 2026-08-21

Jargon, in plain words

value (NAV) — what this strategy's slice of the practice $100,000 would be worth today.

return — how much it's up or down since we started tracking.

vs. buy & hold — how it compares with simply buying and holding the basket — a plus means it's ahead of that.

max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom drop it has sat through so far.

volatility — how bumpy the ride is — a bigger number means larger day-to-day swings.

Sharpe — how much reward you got for that bumpiness — higher is better; it needs a few days of moves before it means anything.

trades — how many times the strategy has bought or sold to follow its rule.

Our forecasting track record

Graded across 38 resolved forecasts, the system's calibration score is 0.128245 — where 0 is perfect and 0.24723 is what you'd score knowing nothing except how often these things turned out true (17 of 38). Lower means its stated confidence lined up better with reality.

It got 32 of 38 directional calls right (84%). These are not independent tests of the same size as their count — several graded the same underlying event, so the evidence here is worth less than the number of calls suggests.

Most recent graded call: “July core CPI (all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, BLS release 2026-08-1…” — it put 78% on it, and that's how it played out (right).

62 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-08-23.

A running self-check score, not a promise.

What moved it

A broad up day lifted the book: buy-and-hold +0.98%, equal-weight +0.83%, and the trend-following sleeve +1.35% off a much lower base. Momentum slipped 0.21% and remains the clear laggard over the run at -13.6%. The defensive tranche sleeve rose 0.50%, held back as always by the 40% cash it keeps in reserve.

What each strategy holds now

What the practice book did (2026-08-21)

Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.

Recent trades

Want to see what the practice strategies have actually been doing over time? The full log is a record of a mock, research-only portfolio — never a suggestion to buy or sell anything, and not something to copy.

See the full trade history — every session the practice book traded, newest first →

Research, not financial advice. Portfolio results are mock capital.
Project snapshot — changes waiting for review: 1 · tracked forecasts open: 62 (checking now: 5) · track record so far: 0.128245 · practice portfolio updated: 2026-08-21.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports