| | Risk Intelligence Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard Gray-Rhino Watch · Plain English 2026-08-19 · 44 run(s) · ≈5 min read · practice portfolio, read-only |
Global stress gauge
🟡 Watch
Some gauges are elevated, but none is at stress.
🟢 5 calm · 🟡 4 watch · 🔴 0 stress
The bottom line, in plain English
A broad up day lifted four of the five mock strategies, and the two that rebalance regularly are now narrowly ahead of a simple buy-and-hold - a gap far too small, over only 44 trading days, to mean anything yet.
Risk level today
🟡 Watch — caution; conditions are elevated, but this is not panic
What this means
Conditions are elevated enough that a regular saver should slow down and think about protection before taking more risk.
What to keep in mind today
- Do not chase a bounce just because prices fell.
- Do not use borrowed money or leverage to add risk.
- Check whether too much of your money is tied to one volatile stock, sector, or theme.
Why we think this
The latest logged stress gauge is Watch, based on 5 calm, 4 watch, 0 stress readings.
What we still do not know
A Watch day does not tell us yet whether this will fade quickly or turn into a longer drawdown.
Regime context
Yield curve + credit
calm — 2s10s +0.52pp, HY OAS 2.70pp
Equity sensor breadth (as of 2026-08-14)
calm — 91.7% of sensors above their 200d average
Reporting / releases, next 7 days
4 checkpoints on the calendar
Mirrors the day's logged stress gauge, the latest equity-sensor breadth read, and the week-ahead earnings/macro calendar — no new numbers are computed here.
Equal weight is ahead at $101,057 — that's +0.5% versus simply buying and holding the basket.
Leaderboard
Ordered by current value today, so the first card is the current leader.
Rank 1 · current leader
Equal weight
keeps an equal amount in every name, evening it out each run.
| value (NAV) | $101,057 |
| return | +1.1% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.5% |
| max drawdown | -8.7% |
| volatility | 21.6% |
| Sharpe | 0.41 |
| trades | 405 |
Rank 2
Buy-the-dip in steps
keeps cash in reserve and buys the basket in steps as it falls from its peak.
| value (NAV) | $100,730 |
| return | +0.8% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.2% |
| max drawdown | -5.2% |
| volatility | 13.0% |
| Sharpe | 0.41 |
| trades | 405 |
Rank 3 · benchmark
Buy & hold
buys the whole basket once and just holds it.
| value (NAV) | $100,519 |
| return | +0.6% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.0% |
| max drawdown | -8.4% |
| volatility | 20.0% |
| Sharpe | 0.27 |
| trades | 9 |
Rank 4
Trend-following
holds only the names currently trending up; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $94,017 |
| return | -5.9% |
| vs. buy & hold | -6.5% |
| max drawdown | -12.8% |
| volatility | 26.4% |
| Sharpe | -1.22 |
| trades | 208 |
Rank 5
Top-3 momentum
rides the three strongest names of the last few months; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $85,529 |
| return | -14.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | -15.0% |
| max drawdown | -24.1% |
| volatility | 48.1% |
| Sharpe | -1.65 |
| trades | 148 |
Leaderboard comparison
benchmark
Buy & hold — $100,519 now
current leader
Equal weight — $101,057 now
strongest challenger
Buy-the-dip in steps — $100,730 now
Comparison limited to the benchmark, current leader, and strongest challenger so the shared dashboard stays readable on mobile. Shared axis $92,014–$101,424 · 2026-06-19 → 2026-08-19
Jargon, in plain words
value (NAV) — what this strategy's slice of the practice $100,000 would be worth today.
return — how much it's up or down since we started tracking.
vs. buy & hold — how it compares with simply buying and holding the basket — a plus means it's ahead of that.
max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom drop it has sat through so far.
volatility — how bumpy the ride is — a bigger number means larger day-to-day swings.
Sharpe — how much reward you got for that bumpiness — higher is better; it needs a few days of moves before it means anything.
trades — how many times the strategy has bought or sold to follow its rule.
Our forecasting track record
Graded across 38 resolved forecasts, the system's calibration score is 0.128245 — where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a 50/50 coin-flip guess. Lower means its stated confidence lined up better with reality.
It got 32 of 38 directional calls right (84%).
Most recent graded call: “July core CPI (all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, BLS release 2026-08-1…” — it put 78% on it, and that's how it played out (right).
58 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-08-20.
A running self-check score, not a promise.
What moved it
Buy-and-hold rose about 1.2% and closed back above the USD 100,000 starting line; the trend-following strategy gained the most on the day (about 2.0%) but is still roughly 6.5 points behind the champion for the run, and momentum was the lone decliner (about -0.1%), still the weakest at -14.4%. The cash-reserve strategy again shows the shallowest drawdown, but a flat-control test found that is its standing 40% cash reserve rather than its trigger, so read that number as cash, not skill.
What each strategy holds now
Equal weight
the whole basket · fully invested
Buy-the-dip in steps
the whole basket · ~40% cash
Buy & hold
the whole basket · fully invested
Trend-following
BTC-USD, GLD, HYG, NVDA, SPY, XLE · fully invested
Top-3 momentum
MU, SPY, XLE · fully invested
Current positions shown so you can see what each line is actually exposed to.
What the practice book did (2026-08-19)
Equal weight
bought NVDA, MU, SMH, SPY, XLE, HYG; sold GLD, BTC-USD, TLT
Buy-the-dip in steps
bought NVDA, MU, SMH, SPY, XLE, HYG; sold GLD, BTC-USD, TLT
Trend-following
bought HYG; sold GLD, NVDA, BTC-USD, SPY, XLE
Top-3 momentum
bought MU, XLE; sold SPY
Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
Recent trades
Want to see what the practice strategies have actually been doing over time? The full log is a record of a mock, research-only portfolio — never a suggestion to buy or sell anything, and not something to copy.
All numbers come directly from the portfolio engine.
Research, not financial advice. Portfolio results are mock capital.
Project snapshot — changes waiting for review: 0 · tracked forecasts open: 58 (checking now: 0) · track record so far: 0.128245 · practice portfolio updated: 2026-08-19.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports