| | Risk Intelligence Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard Gray-Rhino Watch · Plain English 2026-08-17 · 42 run(s) · ≈5 min read · practice portfolio, read-only |
Global stress gauge
🟡 Watch
Some gauges are elevated, but none is at stress.
🟢 2 calm · 🟡 5 watch · 🔴 1 stress
The bottom line, in plain English
Every strategy gained ground today, and the frozen buy-and-hold champion is back above its USD 100,000 starting stake — but two rebalancing challengers are still ahead of it, which is a normal early-days spread and not evidence of skill.
Risk level today
🟡 Watch — caution; conditions are elevated, but this is not panic
What this means
Conditions are elevated enough that a regular saver should slow down and think about protection before taking more risk.
What to keep in mind today
- Do not chase a bounce just because prices fell.
- Do not use borrowed money or leverage to add risk.
- Check whether too much of your money is tied to one volatile stock, sector, or theme.
Why we think this
The latest logged stress gauge is Watch, based on 2 calm, 5 watch, 1 stress readings.
What we still do not know
A Watch day does not tell us yet whether this will fade quickly or turn into a longer drawdown.
Regime context
Yield curve + credit
calm — 2s10s +0.51pp, HY OAS 2.71pp
Equity sensor breadth (as of 2026-08-14)
calm — 91.7% of sensors above their 200d average
Reporting / releases, next 7 days
2 checkpoints on the calendar
Mirrors the day's logged stress gauge, the latest equity-sensor breadth read, and the week-ahead earnings/macro calendar — no new numbers are computed here.
Equal weight is ahead at $101,424 — that's +0.7% versus simply buying and holding the basket.
Leaderboard
Ordered by current value today, so the first card is the current leader.
Rank 1 · current leader
Equal weight
keeps an equal amount in every name, evening it out each run.
| value (NAV) | $101,424 |
| return | +1.5% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.7% |
| max drawdown | -8.7% |
| volatility | 21.7% |
| Sharpe | 0.52 |
| trades | 387 |
Rank 2
Buy-the-dip in steps
keeps cash in reserve and buys the basket in steps as it falls from its peak.
| value (NAV) | $100,945 |
| return | +1.0% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.2% |
| max drawdown | -5.2% |
| volatility | 13.0% |
| Sharpe | 0.52 |
| trades | 387 |
Rank 3 · benchmark
Buy & hold
buys the whole basket once and just holds it.
| value (NAV) | $100,691 |
| return | +0.7% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.0% |
| max drawdown | -8.4% |
| volatility | 20.0% |
| Sharpe | 0.33 |
| trades | 9 |
Rank 4
Trend-following
holds only the names currently trending up; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $93,780 |
| return | -6.2% |
| vs. buy & hold | -6.9% |
| max drawdown | -12.8% |
| volatility | 26.2% |
| Sharpe | -1.36 |
| trades | 194 |
Rank 5
Top-3 momentum
rides the three strongest names of the last few months; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $88,409 |
| return | -11.5% |
| vs. buy & hold | -12.3% |
| max drawdown | -24.1% |
| volatility | 48.8% |
| Sharpe | -1.30 |
| trades | 141 |
Leaderboard comparison
benchmark
Buy & hold — $100,691 now
current leader
Equal weight — $101,424 now
strongest challenger
Buy-the-dip in steps — $100,945 now
Comparison limited to the benchmark, current leader, and strongest challenger so the shared dashboard stays readable on mobile. Shared axis $92,014–$101,424 · 2026-06-19 → 2026-08-17
Jargon, in plain words
value (NAV) — what this strategy's slice of the practice $100,000 would be worth today.
return — how much it's up or down since we started tracking.
vs. buy & hold — how it compares with simply buying and holding the basket — a plus means it's ahead of that.
max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom drop it has sat through so far.
volatility — how bumpy the ride is — a bigger number means larger day-to-day swings.
Sharpe — how much reward you got for that bumpiness — higher is better; it needs a few days of moves before it means anything.
trades — how many times the strategy has bought or sold to follow its rule.
Our forecasting track record
Graded across 38 resolved forecasts, the system's calibration score is 0.128245 — where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a 50/50 coin-flip guess. Lower means its stated confidence lined up better with reality.
It got 32 of 38 directional calls right (84%).
Most recent graded call: “July core CPI (all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, BLS release 2026-08-1…” — it put 78% on it, and that's how it played out (right).
51 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-08-20.
A running self-check score, not a promise.
What moved it
All five books rose on the day, roughly +0.5% to +1.5%, with the most beaten-down strategy (momentum, -11.5% overall) bouncing hardest. The deterministic credit-and-curve gauge reads calm: high-yield spreads sit near 2.71% against a 4.0% warning band and the 2s10s curve is positively sloped at +0.51pp.
What each strategy holds now
Equal weight
the whole basket · fully invested
Buy-the-dip in steps
the whole basket · ~40% cash
Buy & hold
the whole basket · fully invested
Trend-following
BTC-USD, GLD, HYG, MU, NVDA, SMH, SPY, XLE · fully invested
Top-3 momentum
MU, SMH, XLE · fully invested
Current positions shown so you can see what each line is actually exposed to.
What the practice book did (2026-08-17)
Equal weight
bought NVDA, SPY, TLT, HYG; sold GLD, MU, SMH, BTC-USD, XLE
Buy-the-dip in steps
bought NVDA, SPY, TLT, HYG; sold GLD, MU, SMH, BTC-USD, XLE
Trend-following
bought SMH, BTC-USD; sold GLD, NVDA, MU, SPY, XLE, HYG
Top-3 momentum
bought SMH, XLE; sold MU, SPY
Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
Recent trades
Want to see what the practice strategies have actually been doing over time? The full log is a record of a mock, research-only portfolio — never a suggestion to buy or sell anything, and not something to copy.
All numbers come directly from the portfolio engine.
Project changes under review
10 project changes are waiting on manual review before the system itself can change.
Research, not financial advice. Portfolio results are mock capital.
Project snapshot — changes waiting for review: 10 · tracked forecasts open: 51 (checking now: 0) · track record so far: 0.128245 · practice portfolio updated: 2026-08-17.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports