Risk Intelligence Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard Gray-Rhino Watch · Plain English 2026-08-07 · 36 run(s) · ≈4 min read · practice portfolio, read-only |
All five mock portfolios rose today but every one is still slightly below the USD 100,000 starting stake since the June launch, and only the two most defensive ones are ahead of a plain buy-and-hold.
Mirrors the day's logged stress gauge, the latest equity-sensor breadth read, and the week-ahead earnings/macro calendar — no new numbers are computed here.
Buy-the-dip in steps is ahead at $99,300 — that's +1.1% versus simply buying and holding the basket.
Ordered by current value today, so the first card is the current leader.
| value (NAV) | $99,300 |
| return | -0.7% |
| vs. buy & hold | +1.1% |
| max drawdown | -5.2% |
| volatility | 13.8% |
| Sharpe | -0.28 |
| trades | 333 |
| value (NAV) | $98,690 |
| return | -1.3% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.5% |
| max drawdown | -8.7% |
| volatility | 23.0% |
| Sharpe | -0.28 |
| trades | 333 |
| value (NAV) | $98,174 |
| return | -1.8% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.0% |
| max drawdown | -8.4% |
| volatility | 21.3% |
| Sharpe | -0.50 |
| trades | 9 |
| value (NAV) | $91,938 |
| return | -8.0% |
| vs. buy & hold | -6.2% |
| max drawdown | -12.8% |
| volatility | 28.1% |
| Sharpe | -2.00 |
| trades | 156 |
| value (NAV) | $84,178 |
| return | -15.8% |
| vs. buy & hold | -14.0% |
| max drawdown | -24.1% |
| volatility | 51.7% |
| Sharpe | -2.13 |
| trades | 120 |
Graded across 13 resolved forecasts, the system's calibration score is 0.137908 — where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a 50/50 coin-flip guess. Lower means its stated confidence lined up better with reality.
It got 11 of 13 directional calls right (85%).
Most recent graded call: “AI-buildout compute-demand disconfirmer: Alphabet cuts its full-year 2026 capital-expendi…” — it put 15% on it, and that's how it played out (right).
62 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-08-08.
A running self-check score, not a promise.
A broad up day lifted the book: buy-and-hold and equal-weight each gained about 0.7 percent, the trend-following sleeve 0.9 percent, and the cash-heavy drawdown-tranche 0.4 percent, while momentum slipped 0.4 percent and remains the clear laggard at -15.8 percent since inception. The ordering is unchanged — drawdown_tranche still leads on both return and the shallowest peak-to-trough loss, which is what a defensive design is supposed to look like in a choppy, sideways stretch rather than evidence of skill over a 36-run sample.
Current positions shown so you can see what each line is actually exposed to.
Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
All numbers come directly from the portfolio engine.
Research only — not financial advice. The practice portfolio is for learning only; this is a read-only risk briefing meant to help explain risk, never tell anyone what to buy or sell.
Project snapshot — changes waiting for review: 10 · tracked forecasts open: 62 (checking now: 15) · track record so far: 0.137908 · practice portfolio updated: 2026-08-07.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports