| | Risk Intelligence Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard Gray-Rhino Watch · Plain English 2026-07-31 · 31 run(s) · practice portfolio, read-only |
Global stress gauge
🟡 Watch
Some gauges are elevated, but none is at stress.
🟢 3 calm · 🟡 5 watch · 🔴 1 stress
The bottom line, in plain English
Every strategy lost a little ground today, and the cash-holding drawdown_tranche remains the only one ahead of a simple buy-and-hold since the lab opened.
Risk level today
🟡 Watch — caution; conditions are elevated, but this is not panic
What this means
Conditions are elevated enough that a regular saver should slow down and think about protection before taking more risk.
What to keep in mind today
- Do not chase a bounce just because prices fell.
- Do not use borrowed money or leverage to add risk.
- Check whether too much of your money is tied to one volatile stock, sector, or theme.
Why we think this
The latest logged stress gauge is Watch, based on 3 calm, 5 watch, 1 stress readings.
What we still do not know
A Watch day does not tell us yet whether this will fade quickly or turn into a longer drawdown.
Regime context
Yield curve + credit
calm — 2s10s +0.45pp, HY OAS 2.87pp
Equity sensor breadth (as of 2026-07-26)
calm — 91.7% of sensors above their 200d average
Reporting / releases, next 7 days
3 checkpoints on the calendar
Mirrors the day's logged stress gauge, the latest equity-sensor breadth read, and the week-ahead earnings/macro calendar — no new numbers are computed here.
Buy-the-dip in steps is ahead at $96,926 — that's +2.4% versus simply buying and holding the basket.
Leaderboard
Ordered by current value today, so the first card is the current leader.
Rank 1 · current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps
keeps cash in reserve and buys the basket in steps as it falls from its peak.
| value (NAV) | $96,926 |
| return | -3.0% |
| vs. buy & hold | +2.4% |
| max drawdown | -5.2% |
| volatility | 14.2% |
| Sharpe | -1.75 |
| trades | 279 |
Rank 2
Equal weight
keeps an equal amount in every name, evening it out each run.
| value (NAV) | $94,799 |
| return | -5.2% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.3% |
| max drawdown | -8.7% |
| volatility | 23.7% |
| Sharpe | -1.75 |
| trades | 279 |
Rank 3 · benchmark
Buy & hold
buys the whole basket once and just holds it.
| value (NAV) | $94,546 |
| return | -5.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.0% |
| max drawdown | -8.4% |
| volatility | 21.9% |
| Sharpe | -2.02 |
| trades | 9 |
Rank 4
Trend-following
holds only the names currently trending up; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $89,369 |
| return | -10.6% |
| vs. buy & hold | -5.2% |
| max drawdown | -12.8% |
| volatility | 29.6% |
| Sharpe | -3.02 |
| trades | 127 |
Rank 5
Top-3 momentum
rides the three strongest names of the last few months; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $81,585 |
| return | -18.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | -13.0% |
| max drawdown | -24.1% |
| volatility | 54.7% |
| Sharpe | -2.83 |
| trades | 98 |
Leaderboard comparison
benchmark
Buy & hold — $94,546 now
current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps — $96,926 now
strongest challenger
Equal weight — $94,799 now
Comparison limited to the benchmark, current leader, and strongest challenger so the shared dashboard stays readable on mobile. Shared axis $92,014–$100,763 · 2026-06-19 → 2026-07-31
Jargon, in plain words
value (NAV) — what this strategy's slice of the practice $100,000 would be worth today.
return — how much it's up or down since we started tracking.
vs. buy & hold — how it compares with simply buying and holding the basket — a plus means it's ahead of that.
max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom drop it has sat through so far.
volatility — how bumpy the ride is — a bigger number means larger day-to-day swings.
Sharpe — how much reward you got for that bumpiness — higher is better; it needs a few days of moves before it means anything.
trades — how many times the strategy has bought or sold to follow its rule.
Our forecasting track record
Graded across 13 resolved forecasts, the system's calibration score is 0.137908 — where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a 50/50 coin-flip guess. Lower means its stated confidence lined up better with reality.
It got 11 of 13 directional calls right (85%).
Most recent graded call: “AI-buildout compute-demand disconfirmer: Alphabet cuts its full-year 2026 capital-expendi…” — it put 15% on it, and that's how it played out (right).
43 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-08-01.
A running self-check score, not a promise.
What moved it
A broad down day across the book: buy_and_hold fell about 0.6 percent, equal_weight 0.7 percent, sma_trend 1.0 percent and momentum 1.6 percent, while drawdown_tranche slipped only 0.4 percent because roughly 40 percent of it is sitting in cash. Six weeks in, the two highest-turnover challengers (momentum and sma_trend) still trail the frozen champion by 13 and 5 points respectively - the expected result on a sample this short, and a reminder that trading activity is a cost until it is proven otherwise.
What each strategy holds now
Buy-the-dip in steps
the whole basket · ~40% cash
Equal weight
the whole basket · fully invested
Buy & hold
the whole basket · fully invested
Trend-following
SPY, XLE · fully invested
Top-3 momentum
MU, SMH, SPY · fully invested
Current positions shown so you can see what each line is actually exposed to.
What the practice book did (2026-07-31)
Buy-the-dip in steps
bought GLD, MU, BTC-USD, TLT; sold NVDA, SMH, SPY, XLE, HYG
Equal weight
bought GLD, MU, BTC-USD; sold NVDA, SMH, SPY, TLT, XLE, HYG
Trend-following
bought SPY; sold BTC-USD, XLE
Top-3 momentum
bought MU; sold SMH, SPY
Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
Recent trades
Want to see what the practice strategies have actually been doing over time? The full log is a record of a mock, research-only portfolio — never a suggestion to buy or sell anything, and not something to copy.
All numbers come directly from the portfolio engine.
Project changes under review
8 project changes are waiting on manual review before the system itself can change.
Research only — not financial advice. The practice portfolio is for learning only; this is a read-only risk briefing meant to help explain risk, never tell anyone what to buy or sell.
Project snapshot — changes waiting for review: 8 · tracked forecasts open: 43 (checking now: 11) · track record so far: 0.137908 · practice portfolio updated: 2026-07-31.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports