| | Risk Intelligence Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard Gray-Rhino Watch · Plain English 2026-07-20 · 22 run(s) · practice portfolio, read-only |
Global stress gauge
🟡 Watch
Some gauges are elevated, but none is at stress.
🟢 3 calm · 🟡 3 watch · 🔴 0 stress
The bottom line, in plain English
Every strategy ticked up slightly today, but as a group our experimental strategies still trail a simple buy-and-hold, the expected and healthy result, while the most defensive one stays modestly ahead.
Risk level today
🟡 Watch — caution; conditions are elevated, but this is not panic
What this means
Conditions are elevated enough that a regular saver should slow down and think about protection before taking more risk.
What to keep in mind today
- Do not chase a bounce just because prices fell.
- Do not use borrowed money or leverage to add risk.
- Check whether too much of your money is tied to one volatile stock, sector, or theme.
Why we think this
The latest logged stress gauge is Watch, based on 3 calm, 3 watch, 0 stress readings.
What we still do not know
A Watch day does not tell us yet whether this will fade quickly or turn into a longer drawdown.
Regime context
Yield curve + credit
calm — 2s10s +0.37pp, HY OAS 2.71pp
Equity sensor breadth (as of 2026-07-19)
calm — 91.7% of sensors above their 200d average
Reporting / releases, next 7 days
2 checkpoints on the calendar
Mirrors the day's logged stress gauge, the latest equity-sensor breadth read, and the week-ahead earnings/macro calendar — no new numbers are computed here.
Buy-the-dip in steps is ahead at $97,372 — that's +1.8% versus simply buying and holding the basket.
Leaderboard
Ordered by current value today, so the first card is the current leader.
Rank 1 · current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps
keeps cash in reserve and buys the basket in steps as it falls from its peak.
| value (NAV) | $97,372 |
| return | -2.6% |
| vs. buy & hold | +1.8% |
| max drawdown | -3.3% |
| volatility | 12.3% |
| Sharpe | -2.50 |
| trades | 198 |
Rank 2
Equal weight
keeps an equal amount in every name, evening it out each run.
| value (NAV) | $95,589 |
| return | -4.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.1% |
| max drawdown | -5.6% |
| volatility | 20.5% |
| Sharpe | -2.50 |
| trades | 198 |
Rank 3 · benchmark
Buy & hold
buys the whole basket once and just holds it.
| value (NAV) | $95,512 |
| return | -4.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.0% |
| max drawdown | -5.6% |
| volatility | 20.2% |
| Sharpe | -2.60 |
| trades | 9 |
Rank 4
Trend-following
holds only the names currently trending up; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $93,310 |
| return | -6.6% |
| vs. buy & hold | -2.2% |
| max drawdown | -8.0% |
| volatility | 32.6% |
| Sharpe | -2.36 |
| trades | 104 |
Rank 5
Top-3 momentum
rides the three strongest names of the last few months; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $84,914 |
| return | -15.0% |
| vs. buy & hold | -10.6% |
| max drawdown | -17.6% |
| volatility | 50.7% |
| Sharpe | -3.58 |
| trades | 67 |
Leaderboard comparison
benchmark
Buy & hold — $95,512 now
current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps — $97,372 now
strongest challenger
Equal weight — $95,589 now
Comparison limited to the benchmark, current leader, and strongest challenger so the shared dashboard stays readable on mobile. Shared axis $95,122–$100,763 · 2026-06-19 → 2026-07-20
Jargon, in plain words
value (NAV) — what this strategy's slice of the practice $100,000 would be worth today.
return — how much it's up or down since we started tracking.
vs. buy & hold — how it compares with simply buying and holding the basket — a plus means it's ahead of that.
max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom drop it has sat through so far.
volatility — how bumpy the ride is — a bigger number means larger day-to-day swings.
Sharpe — how much reward you got for that bumpiness — higher is better; it needs a few days of moves before it means anything.
trades — how many times the strategy has bought or sold to follow its rule.
How we've done so far
This is a new system still building its evidence. So far 5 of its forecasts have been graded against what actually happened — far too few to judge skill (a fair read needs dozens).
4 of 5 leaned the right way, and its calibration score is 0.13656 — where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a 50/50 coin-flip guess. On just 5 calls that's encouraging, not proof. 35 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-07-22.
Most recent graded call: “Samsung Q2 2026 preliminary operating profit comes in BELOW the market consensus cited at…” — it put 30% on it, and that's how it played out (right).
Lower is better; a genuinely good system stays well below 0.25 over many calls. A self-check score, not a promise.
What moved it
A mildly positive market day lifted all five strategies a few tenths of a percent. Since inception on 19 June, the defensive drawdown-tranche leads at -2.6% return, buy-and-hold (the frozen champion) sits at -4.4%, and the momentum sleeve remains the laggard at -15.0%.
What each strategy holds now
Buy-the-dip in steps
the whole basket · ~40% cash
Equal weight
the whole basket · fully invested
Buy & hold
the whole basket · fully invested
Trend-following
HYG, XLE · fully invested
Top-3 momentum
MU, SMH, SPY · fully invested
Current positions shown so you can see what each line is actually exposed to.
What the practice book did (2026-07-20)
Buy-the-dip in steps
bought GLD, NVDA, SPY, TLT, HYG; sold MU, SMH, BTC-USD, XLE
Equal weight
bought GLD, NVDA, SMH, SPY, TLT, HYG; sold MU, BTC-USD, XLE
Trend-following
bought HYG; sold XLE
Top-3 momentum
bought SMH, SPY; sold MU
Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
Recent trades
Want to see what the practice strategies have actually been doing over time? The full log is a record of a mock, research-only portfolio — never a suggestion to buy or sell anything, and not something to copy.
All numbers come directly from the portfolio engine.
Project changes under review
4 project changes are waiting on manual review before the system itself can change.
Research only — not financial advice. The practice portfolio is for learning only; this is a read-only risk briefing meant to help explain risk, never tell anyone what to buy or sell.
Project snapshot — changes waiting for review: 4 · tracked forecasts open: 35 (checking now: 1) · track record so far: 0.13656 · practice portfolio updated: 2026-07-20.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports