| | Risk Intelligence Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard Gray-Rhino Watch · Plain English 2026-07-16 · 20 run(s) · practice portfolio, read-only |
Global stress gauge
🟡 Watch
Some gauges are elevated, but none is at stress.
🟢 2 calm · 🟡 3 watch · 🔴 0 stress
The bottom line, in plain English
It was a broadly down day for stocks and every one of our experimental strategies lost a little ground, with the cash-holding defensive strategy losing the least and the aggressive one losing the most — the whole experiment still trails a simple buy-and-hold, which remains the expected, healthy result.
Risk level today
🟡 Watch — caution; conditions are elevated, but this is not panic
What this means
Conditions are elevated enough that a regular saver should slow down and think about protection before taking more risk.
What to keep in mind today
- Do not chase a bounce just because prices fell.
- Do not use borrowed money or leverage to add risk.
- Check whether too much of your money is tied to one volatile stock, sector, or theme.
Why we think this
The latest logged stress gauge is Watch, based on 2 calm, 3 watch, 0 stress readings.
What we still do not know
A Watch day does not tell us yet whether this will fade quickly or turn into a longer drawdown.
Regime context
Yield curve + credit
calm — 2s10s +0.42pp, HY OAS 2.72pp
Equity sensor breadth (as of 2026-07-12)
calm — 91.7% of sensors above their 200d average
Reporting / releases, next 7 days
2 checkpoints on the calendar
Mirrors the day's logged stress gauge, the latest equity-sensor breadth read, and the week-ahead earnings/macro calendar — no new numbers are computed here.
Buy-the-dip in steps is ahead at $97,348 — that's +1.9% versus simply buying and holding the basket.
Leaderboard
Ordered by current value today, so the first card is the current leader.
Rank 1 · current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps
keeps cash in reserve and buys the basket in steps as it falls from its peak.
| value (NAV) | $97,348 |
| return | -2.6% |
| vs. buy & hold | +1.9% |
| max drawdown | -3.1% |
| volatility | 12.9% |
| Sharpe | -2.67 |
| trades | 180 |
Rank 2
Equal weight
keeps an equal amount in every name, evening it out each run.
| value (NAV) | $95,550 |
| return | -4.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.1% |
| max drawdown | -5.2% |
| volatility | 21.4% |
| Sharpe | -2.67 |
| trades | 180 |
Rank 3 · benchmark
Buy & hold
buys the whole basket once and just holds it.
| value (NAV) | $95,471 |
| return | -4.5% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.0% |
| max drawdown | -5.3% |
| volatility | 21.1% |
| Sharpe | -2.77 |
| trades | 9 |
Rank 4
Trend-following
holds only the names currently trending up; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $93,120 |
| return | -6.8% |
| vs. buy & hold | -2.4% |
| max drawdown | -8.0% |
| volatility | 34.2% |
| Sharpe | -2.57 |
| trades | 99 |
Rank 5
Top-3 momentum
rides the three strongest names of the last few months; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $85,340 |
| return | -14.6% |
| vs. buy & hold | -10.1% |
| max drawdown | -16.6% |
| volatility | 53.0% |
| Sharpe | -3.67 |
| trades | 61 |
Leaderboard comparison
benchmark
Buy & hold — $95,471 now
current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps — $97,348 now
strongest challenger
Equal weight — $95,550 now
Comparison limited to the benchmark, current leader, and strongest challenger so the shared dashboard stays readable on mobile. Shared axis $95,471–$100,763 · 2026-06-19 → 2026-07-16
Jargon, in plain words
value (NAV) — what this strategy's slice of the practice $100,000 would be worth today.
return — how much it's up or down since we started tracking.
vs. buy & hold — how it compares with simply buying and holding the basket — a plus means it's ahead of that.
max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom drop it has sat through so far.
volatility — how bumpy the ride is — a bigger number means larger day-to-day swings.
Sharpe — how much reward you got for that bumpiness — higher is better; it needs a few days of moves before it means anything.
trades — how many times the strategy has bought or sold to follow its rule.
How we've done so far
This is a new system still building its evidence. So far 5 of its forecasts have been graded against what actually happened — far too few to judge skill (a fair read needs dozens).
4 of 5 leaned the right way, and its calibration score is 0.13656 — where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a 50/50 coin-flip guess. On just 5 calls that's encouraging, not proof. 31 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-07-20.
Most recent graded call: “Samsung Q2 2026 preliminary operating profit comes in BELOW the market consensus cited at…” — it put 30% on it, and that's how it played out (right).
Lower is better; a genuinely good system stays well below 0.25 over many calls. A self-check score, not a promise.
What moved it
Markets fell across the board today, so all five strategies dropped roughly 1 to 3 percent from yesterday. The defensive drawdown-tranche strategy, which keeps a large cash buffer, held up best (down about 1 percent and still leading the pack), while the aggressive momentum strategy fell hardest (down about 3 percent). No strategy is beating the frozen buy-and-hold champion by a meaningful margin.
What each strategy holds now
Buy-the-dip in steps
the whole basket · ~40% cash
Equal weight
the whole basket · fully invested
Buy & hold
the whole basket · fully invested
Trend-following
HYG, SPY, XLE · fully invested
Top-3 momentum
MU, SMH, SPY · fully invested
Current positions shown so you can see what each line is actually exposed to.
What the practice book did (2026-07-16)
Buy-the-dip in steps
bought GLD, NVDA, MU, SMH, BTC-USD; sold SPY, TLT, XLE, HYG
Equal weight
bought GLD, NVDA, MU, SMH; sold BTC-USD, SPY, TLT, XLE, HYG
Trend-following
bought SPY, XLE, HYG; sold NVDA
Top-3 momentum
bought MU, SMH; sold SPY
Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
Recent trades
Want to see what the practice strategies have actually been doing over time? The full log is a record of a mock, research-only portfolio — never a suggestion to buy or sell anything, and not something to copy.
All numbers come directly from the portfolio engine.
Project changes under review
3 project changes are waiting on manual review before the system itself can change.
Research only — not financial advice. The practice portfolio is for learning only; this is a read-only risk briefing meant to help explain risk, never tell anyone what to buy or sell.
Project snapshot — changes waiting for review: 3 · tracked forecasts open: 31 (checking now: 0) · track record so far: 0.13656 · practice portfolio updated: 2026-07-16.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports