| | Risk Intelligence Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard Gray-Rhino Watch · Plain English 2026-07-07 · 13 run(s) · practice portfolio, read-only |
Global stress gauge
🟡 Watch
Some gauges are elevated, but none is at stress.
🟢 5 calm · 🟡 1 watch · 🔴 0 stress
The bottom line, in plain English
All five strategies are modestly below the USD 100K starting line after three weeks, roughly tracking a simple buy-and-hold; the one bright spot is the defensive drawdown-tranche approach, which has lost the least by holding more cash during the recent slide.
Risk level today
🟡 Watch — caution; risk is rising, but this is not panic
What this means
Risk is rising enough that a regular saver should slow down and think about protection before taking more risk.
What to keep in mind today
- Do not chase a bounce just because prices fell.
- Do not use borrowed money or leverage to add risk.
- Check whether too much of your money is tied to one volatile stock, sector, or theme.
Why we think this
The latest logged stress gauge is Watch, based on 5 calm, 1 watch, 0 stress readings.
What we still do not know
A Watch day does not tell us yet whether this will fade quickly or turn into a longer drawdown.
Buy-the-dip in steps is ahead at $97,594 — that's +1.8% versus simply buying and holding the basket.
Leaderboard
Ordered by current value today, so the first card is the current leader.
Rank 1 · current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps
keeps cash in reserve and buys the basket in steps as it falls from its peak.
| value (NAV) | $97,594 |
| return | -2.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | +1.8% |
| max drawdown | -2.9% |
| volatility | 12.7% |
| Sharpe | -3.91 |
| trades | 117 |
Rank 2
Equal weight
keeps an equal amount in every name, evening it out each run.
| value (NAV) | $95,978 |
| return | -4.0% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.2% |
| max drawdown | -4.8% |
| volatility | 21.2% |
| Sharpe | -3.91 |
| trades | 117 |
Rank 3 · benchmark
Buy & hold
buys the whole basket once and just holds it.
| value (NAV) | $95,777 |
| return | -4.2% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.0% |
| max drawdown | -5.1% |
| volatility | 21.3% |
| Sharpe | -4.09 |
| trades | 9 |
Rank 4
Trend-following
holds only the names currently trending up; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $94,032 |
| return | -5.9% |
| vs. buy & hold | -1.7% |
| max drawdown | -7.1% |
| volatility | 38.4% |
| Sharpe | -3.13 |
| trades | 64 |
Rank 5
Top-3 momentum
rides the three strongest names of the last few months; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $88,493 |
| return | -11.5% |
| vs. buy & hold | -7.3% |
| max drawdown | -13.5% |
| volatility | 59.5% |
| Sharpe | -3.97 |
| trades | 40 |
Leaderboard comparison
benchmark
Buy & hold — $95,777 now
current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps — $97,594 now
strongest challenger
Equal weight — $95,978 now
Comparison limited to the benchmark, current leader, and strongest challenger so the shared dashboard stays readable on mobile. Shared axis $95,636–$100,763 · 2026-06-19 → 2026-07-07
Jargon, in plain words
value (NAV) — what this strategy's slice of the practice $100,000 would be worth today.
return — how much it's up or down since we started tracking.
vs. buy & hold — how it compares with simply buying and holding the basket — a plus means it's ahead of that.
max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom drop it has sat through so far.
volatility — how bumpy the ride is — a bigger number means larger day-to-day swings.
Sharpe — how much reward you got for that bumpiness — higher is better; it needs a few days of moves before it means anything.
trades — how many times the strategy has bought or sold to follow its rule.
How we've done so far
This is a new system still building its evidence. So far 4 of its forecasts have been graded against what actually happened — far too few to judge skill (a fair read needs dozens).
3 of 4 leaned the right way, and its calibration score is 0.1482 — where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a 50/50 coin-flip guess. On just 4 calls that's encouraging, not proof. 21 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-07-10.
Most recent graded call: “Labor-cooling thesis disconfirmer fires: June nonfarm payrolls re-accelerate rather than…” — it put 30% on it, and that's how it played out (right).
Lower is better; a genuinely good system stays well below 0.25 over many calls. A self-check score, not a promise.
What moved it
Markets drifted lower again today, pulling every strategy down a touch. The defensive drawdown-tranche book (USD 97,594) stayed ahead of buy-and-hold (USD 95,777) by trimming risk, while the momentum book (USD 88,493) remains the clear laggard after chasing the wrong moves. Global stress gauge reads watch.
What each strategy holds now
Buy-the-dip in steps
the whole basket · ~40% cash
Equal weight
the whole basket · fully invested
Buy & hold
the whole basket · fully invested
Trend-following
HYG, MU, SPY · fully invested
Top-3 momentum
MU, SMH, SPY · fully invested
Current positions shown so you can see what each line is actually exposed to.
What the practice book did (2026-07-07)
Buy-the-dip in steps
bought GLD, MU, SMH, BTC-USD, TLT; sold NVDA, SPY, XLE, HYG
Equal weight
bought GLD, MU, SMH, TLT; sold NVDA, BTC-USD, SPY, XLE, HYG
Trend-following
bought MU, SPY, HYG; sold SMH, TLT
Top-3 momentum
bought MU, SMH; sold SPY
Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
Recent trades
Want to see what the practice strategies have actually been doing over time? The full log is a record of a mock, research-only portfolio — never a suggestion to buy or sell anything, and not something to copy.
All numbers come directly from the portfolio engine.
Project changes under review
2 project changes are waiting on manual review before the system itself can change.
Research only — not financial advice. The practice portfolio is for learning only; this is a read-only risk briefing meant to help explain risk, never tell anyone what to buy or sell.
Project snapshot — changes waiting for review: 2 · tracked forecasts open: 21 (checking now: 0) · track record so far: 0.1482 · practice portfolio updated: 2026-07-07.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports