Nominal n=38. Related calls can depend on the same event, so this is not 38 fully independent trials and is not proof of forecasting skill. Read the score as an early calibration record.
Scorecard
Predictions already graded
These calls have already been checked against what happened.
Came true
75% confidencemade 2026-07-18deadline 2026-08-15graded 2026-08-16
The Section 122 to Section 301 tariff transition passes without a broad market-stress event: the transition is largely telegraphed and absorbed rather than a systemic shock.
first brief unavailable
Show the exact grading rule
On every US trading day from 2026-07-24 through 2026-08-14, ICE BofA US HY OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) closes below 4.00 percentage points AND the VIX closes below 25.00. TRUE if both conditions hold on every such day; FALSE if either is breached on any day.
Per-call score: 0.0625. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
20% confidencemade 2026-07-17deadline 2026-08-15graded 2026-08-16
Equity-concentration contagion (ai_buildout market_structure / thesis #7 disconfirmer): the semiconductor-led selloff broadens into a market-wide drawdown rather than staying a contained positioning unwind.
First appeared in the 2026-07-17 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
TRUE if the S&P 500 posts a daily close at or below 7,150 (about 5% below the 07-16 close of 7,534) on any session on or before 2026-08-15; else FALSE.
Per-call score: 0.04. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
78% confidencemade 2026-08-11deadline 2026-08-13graded 2026-08-16
July core CPI (all items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, BLS release 2026-08-12) rises no more than 0.4 percent month over month, i.e. the July oil surge does NOT show up as a broad underlying-inflation jump in the same month.
First appeared in the 2026-08-11 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
BLS Consumer Price Index Summary for July 2026 (released 2026-08-12) reports seasonally adjusted core CPI (all items less food and energy) month-over-month change of 0.4 percent or less. TRUE if <=0.4; FALSE if >=0.5 as first published.
Per-call score: 0.0484. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
28% confidencemade 2026-08-05deadline 2026-08-13graded 2026-08-16
SpaceX (SPCX) absorbs its 2026-08-06 insider lockup expiry without a durable repricing lower: SPCX closes on 2026-08-13 at or above its 2026-08-04 close of USD 125.33
First appeared in the 2026-08-05 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
Objective: SPCX official closing price on 2026-08-13 is greater than or equal to USD 125.33. Resolves TRUE if so (disconfirmer of the AI-capex/financing-fragility thesis fired), FALSE otherwise.
Per-call score: 0.5184. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
55% confidencemade 2026-08-05deadline 2026-08-12graded 2026-08-16
A publicly announced agreement providing for the reopening of, or safe commercial passage through, the Strait of Hormuz is reached on or before 2026-08-12
First appeared in the 2026-08-05 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
Objective: on or before 2026-08-12 an agreement covering reopening or safe commercial transit of the Strait of Hormuz is announced by a government party (US, Iran or Oman) or reported as concluded by Reuters or AP. A further extension of talks, a proposal, or a draft text without agreement resolves FALSE.
Per-call score: 0.3025. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
28% confidencemade 2026-08-06deadline 2026-08-08graded 2026-08-09
The July 2026 US employment report shows nonfarm payrolls of at least 100,000 AND an unemployment rate of 4.2 percent or lower - the labor-deterioration thesis disconfirmer firing
First appeared in the 2026-08-06 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
BLS Employment Situation released 2026-08-07 reports July nonfarm payroll change of 100,000 or more (initial headline print) AND a July unemployment rate of 4.2 percent or lower. Both conditions required.
Per-call score: 0.0784. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
35% confidencemade 2026-08-04deadline 2026-08-08graded 2026-08-09
The July 2026 US unemployment rate prints at 4.3 pct or higher
First appeared in the 2026-08-04 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
TRUE if the BLS Employment Situation released 2026-08-07 reports a July 2026 headline U-3 unemployment rate of 4.3 pct or higher (first print, seasonally adjusted). FALSE if it reports 4.2 pct or lower. June 2026 was 4.2 pct (EVT-0302).
Per-call score: 0.1225. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
60% confidencemade 2026-07-04deadline 2026-08-08graded 2026-08-09
Labor cooling continues: July 2026 nonfarm payrolls (first print) come in below +100K, extending the sub-trend June (57K) print and downward revisions.
First appeared in the 2026-07-04 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
BLS July 2026 Employment Situation (first/headline establishment print, released early August 2026) reports nonfarm payroll change below +100,000. TRUE if < 100K; FALSE if >= 100K.
Per-call score: 0.16. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
20% confidencemade 2026-07-04deadline 2026-08-08graded 2026-08-09
Labor-deterioration thesis disconfirmer fires: July 2026 payrolls re-accelerate rather than deteriorate.
First appeared in the 2026-07-04 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
BLS July 2026 Employment Situation (released early August 2026) shows nonfarm payrolls >= +150,000 AND unemployment rate <= 4.2%. TRUE if both hold (disconfirmer fired); FALSE otherwise.
Per-call score: 0.04. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
20% confidencemade 2026-07-03deadline 2026-08-08graded 2026-08-09
Labor-deterioration thesis disconfirmer fires: July 2026 nonfarm payrolls re-accelerate rather than continue cooling
First appeared in the 2026-07-03 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
BLS July 2026 Employment Situation (first/headline establishment print, released early August 2026) reports nonfarm payroll change >= 150,000. TRUE if >= 150K; FALSE if below.
Per-call score: 0.04. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
60% confidencemade 2026-08-05deadline 2026-08-07graded 2026-08-09
The July 2026 US Employment Situation released 2026-08-07 shows nonfarm payrolls of at least +100,000 (initial print)
First appeared in the 2026-08-05 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
Objective: the initial BLS print for July 2026 total nonfarm payroll change, as published 2026-08-07, is greater than or equal to +100,000. Later revisions do not change the resolution.
Per-call score: 0.36. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
15% confidencemade 2026-07-29deadline 2026-08-05graded 2026-08-09
AI-buildout builders/equipment disconfirmer fires on an axis no open prediction covers (physical buildout order book, not memory pricing): Vertiv's 2Q26 report shows the data-centre power/cooling order book turning over.
First appeared in the 2026-07-29 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
TRUE if, in its 2Q26 results released on or about 2026-07-29, Vertiv (VRT) either (a) lowers the midpoint of its previously issued full-year 2026 net-sales guidance, or (b) reports total backlog BELOW the prior quarter's reported backlog. FALSE if it raises or maintains the full-year net-sales guidance midpoint AND reports backlog at or above the prior quarter. Resolve from the company's own release or 8-K/press materials, not press summaries.
Per-call score: 0.0225. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
28% confidencemade 2026-07-14deadline 2026-08-04graded 2026-08-09
DISCONFIRMER of the energy supply-shock thesis: Strait of Hormuz tensions de-escalate quickly and oil unwinds the shock — Brent front-month closes below USD 75/bbl on or before 2026-08-04
First appeared in the 2026-07-14 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
Brent front-month futures settle below USD 75.00/bbl on any trading day on or before 2026-08-04
Per-call score: 0.0784. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
62% confidencemade 2026-07-24deadline 2026-08-01graded 2026-08-09
The Fed holds its policy rate at 3.50-3.75% at its late-July 2026 FOMC meeting, despite the oil-driven jump in September hike expectations
First appeared in the 2026-07-24 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
The FOMC target range for the federal funds rate remains 3.50-3.75% (no hike and no cut) following its late-July 2026 meeting, per the post-meeting statement
Per-call score: 0.1444. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
75% confidencemade 2026-07-30deadline 2026-07-31graded 2026-08-09
June 2026 core PCE inflation does NOT accelerate past May's three-year high: the BEA release on 2026-07-30 shows core PCE year-on-year at or below 3.4 percent.
First appeared in the 2026-07-30 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
TRUE if the BEA June 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release reports core PCE (excluding food and energy) year-on-year at or below 3.4 percent as first published. FALSE if above 3.4 percent.
Per-call score: 0.0625. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
72% confidencemade 2026-07-27deadline 2026-07-31graded 2026-08-09
Oil stays de-escalated into month-end: Brent front-month settles below USD 95/bbl on 2026-07-31
First appeared in the 2026-07-27 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
ICE Brent front-month futures official settlement on 2026-07-31 is below USD 95.00 per barrel
Per-call score: 0.0784. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
30% confidencemade 2026-07-01deadline 2026-07-31graded 2026-08-09
The hawkish global rate repricing reverses in July: the US 30-year Treasury yield closes the last business day of July 2026 BELOW 4.86% (its 2026-06-29 level) — duration rallies rather than term premium building. This is the sovereign_rates_stress disconfirmer.
First appeared in the 2026-07-01 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
FRED series DGS30 (30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity) closing value on the last business day of July 2026 is strictly below 4.86 percent.
Per-call score: 0.09. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
30% confidencemade 2026-06-30deadline 2026-07-31graded 2026-08-09
Narrow-leadership breadth divergence fires: on at least one trading day by 2026-07-31 the S&P 500 closes at a fresh record high while fewer than 50% of its members are above their 50-day moving average.
First appeared in the 2026-06-30 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
By 2026-07-31, on >=1 day the S&P 500 prints a record closing high AND the share of S&P 500 constituents above their 50-day moving average (widely published breadth stat) is below 50% on that same day. TRUE if both hold on any single day; else FALSE.
Per-call score: 0.09. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
68% confidencemade 2026-06-29deadline 2026-07-31graded 2026-08-09
US-Iran Strait of Hormuz de-escalation holds and the energy supply shock fades: Brent crude front-month does NOT close at/above USD 85/bbl on any trading day through 2026-07-31.
First appeared in the 2026-06-29 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
Brent ICE front-month records NO daily settlement at or above USD 85.00/bbl on any trading day from 2026-06-29 through 2026-07-31 inclusive (FRED/ICE).
Per-call score: 0.4624. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
35% confidencemade 2026-07-14deadline 2026-07-30graded 2026-08-09
The Fed raises the federal funds target range at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting
First appeared in the 2026-07-14 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
The July 29, 2026 FOMC statement announces an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate (a hike, not a hold or cut)
Per-call score: 0.1225. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
85% confidencemade 2026-07-05deadline 2026-07-30graded 2026-08-09
Fed does NOT raise the policy rate at the July 28-29 2026 FOMC (holds or cuts)
First appeared in the 2026-07-05 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
FOMC decision released 2026-07-29 leaves the federal funds target range unchanged or lower vs its pre-meeting level. TRUE if unchanged or cut; FALSE if raised.
Per-call score: 0.0225. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
78% confidencemade 2026-07-27deadline 2026-07-29graded 2026-08-09
FOMC holds its policy rate at the July 29 2026 meeting (no hike, no cut)
First appeared in the 2026-07-27 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
The FOMC statement released 2026-07-29 leaves the target range unchanged at 3.50-3.75 percent (no increase and no decrease)
Per-call score: 0.0484. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
13% confidencemade 2026-06-28deadline 2026-07-28graded 2026-08-09
AI-buildout financing leg cracks into broad credit stress within ~30 days: US high-yield credit spreads widen materially from current multi-year tights (~263 bps).
First appeared in the 2026-06-28 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
TRUE if ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) closes at or above 3.50 percent (350 bps) on any business day on or before 2026-07-28; else FALSE. Resolve from FRED.
Per-call score: 0.0169. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
92% confidencemade 2026-07-18deadline 2026-07-27graded 2026-08-09
The Section 122 10% global import surcharge lapses on or about 2026-07-24 by operation of its 150-day statutory cap, with no congressional extension enacted.
first brief unavailable
Show the exact grading rule
By 2026-07-27, no enacted US federal law has extended the Section 122 surcharge beyond its 150-day cap and the 10% global surcharge ceases to apply on or about 2026-07-24 (verified vs Congress.gov / USTR / CBP notices). TRUE if it lapses as scheduled; FALSE if an extension is enacted or the surcharge otherwise persists past ~Jul 24.
Per-call score: 0.0064. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
25% confidencemade 2026-07-13deadline 2026-07-27graded 2026-08-09
Peace-dividend disconfirmer to the energy supply-shock thesis: Strait of Hormuz large-vessel transits resume to near-normal AND Brent settles back below its pre-conflict level (~USD 70/bbl)
First appeared in the 2026-07-13 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
By 2026-07-27, Lloyd's List Intelligence or IMO reports large-vessel Hormuz transits resumed to near-normal AND Brent front-month settles below USD 70/bbl on at least one session
Per-call score: 0.0625. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
15% confidencemade 2026-07-21deadline 2026-07-24graded 2026-07-26
AI-buildout compute-demand disconfirmer: Alphabet cuts its full-year 2026 capital-expenditure guidance when it reports on 2026-07-22, signalling the Moonshot cheaper-AI narrative is denting real hyperscaler build plans
First appeared in the 2026-07-21 brief.
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Alphabet's FY2026 capex guidance stated on/around its 2026-07-22 earnings call is LOWER than its most recent prior FY2026 capex guidance (a maintain-or-raise resolves false)
Per-call score: 0.0225. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
75% confidencemade 2026-06-23deadline 2026-07-23graded 2026-07-26
The Jun-2026 AI/semiconductor equity selloff is a valuation/leverage correction, not the start of a systemic equity bear market: the S&P 500 avoids a 10 percent drawdown from its June peak over the next 30 days
First appeared in the 2026-06-23 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
S&P 500 (Yahoo ^GSPC / FRED SP500) does NOT close below 6,800 on any trading day from 2026-06-23 through 2026-07-23 (about -10 percent from the ~7,559 June 2026 peak). TRUE if it never closes below 6,800; FALSE if it closes below 6,800 on any day
Per-call score: 0.0625. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
35% confidencemade 2026-07-08deadline 2026-07-22graded 2026-07-26
Energy-shock disconfirmer (peace dividend): the Iran/Hormuz oil spike fully reverses as geopolitics de-escalates, unwinding the geopolitical premium within ~2 weeks.
First appeared in the 2026-07-08 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
Brent crude front-month settles below USD 73/bbl on or before 2026-07-22 (roughly the pre-escalation early-July level, i.e. the ~6% spike fully unwinds).
Per-call score: 0.1225. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
80% confidencemade 2026-06-22deadline 2026-07-22graded 2026-07-26
US HY credit spreads stay contained near current tights over the next 30 days
First appeared in the 2026-06-22 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
ICE BofA US HY OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) latest daily value on or before 2026-07-22 is below 350bps (3.50%)
Per-call score: 0.04. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
65% confidencemade 2026-06-22deadline 2026-07-22graded 2026-07-26
No systemic volatility event in the next 30 days
First appeared in the 2026-06-22 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
VIX (FRED VIXCLS) daily close stays below 30 on every trading day from 2026-06-22 through 2026-07-22
Per-call score: 0.1225. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
70% confidencemade 2026-06-22deadline 2026-07-22graded 2026-07-26
Gold consolidates/pulls back rather than making new highs near-term
First appeared in the 2026-06-22 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
LBMA/COMEX spot gold closes below ,500/oz on 2026-07-22
Per-call score: 0.49. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
70% confidencemade 2026-06-22deadline 2026-07-22graded 2026-07-26
Despite the Strait of Hormuz headline risk, oil stays contained rather than spiking over the next 30 days
First appeared in the 2026-06-22 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
Brent crude front-month settlement stays below USD 95/bbl on every trading day from 2026-06-22 through 2026-07-22
Per-call score: 0.09. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
60% confidencemade 2026-07-13deadline 2026-07-20graded 2026-07-26
Oil stays elevated near-term on the Hormuz disruption: Brent front-month settles above USD 75/bbl on 2026-07-20
First appeared in the 2026-07-13 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
Brent front-month futures settle above USD 75/bbl at the 2026-07-20 close
Per-call score: 0.16. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
30% confidencemade 2026-07-06deadline 2026-07-10graded 2026-07-12
Samsung Q2 2026 preliminary operating profit comes in BELOW the market consensus cited at release, signalling AI/memory demand softening (the ai_buildout compute-demand disconfirmer firing)
First appeared in the 2026-07-06 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
Samsung official Q2 2026 preliminary earnings release (~July 7) reports quarterly operating profit below the consensus/analyst estimate cited by Reuters or the company at release
Per-call score: 0.09. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
30% confidencemade 2026-07-02deadline 2026-07-03graded 2026-07-05
Labor-cooling thesis disconfirmer fires: June nonfarm payrolls re-accelerate rather than deteriorate
First appeared in the 2026-07-02 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
BLS June Employment Situation (released 2026-07-02) shows nonfarm payrolls >= 150,000 AND unemployment rate <= 4.3%
Per-call score: 0.09. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came false
62% confidencemade 2026-06-30deadline 2026-07-03graded 2026-07-05
June 2026 nonfarm payrolls (first print, BLS Employment Situation released 2026-07-02) come in at or above +100K.
First appeared in the 2026-06-30 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
BLS Employment Situation released 2026-07-02 reports June nonfarm payroll change (establishment survey, first/headline print) >= +100,000. TRUE if >= 100K; FALSE if below.
Per-call score: 0.3844. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
72% confidencemade 2026-06-25deadline 2026-06-27graded 2026-06-28
May core PCE (released ~2026-06-26) prints at or above 3.3% YoY
First appeared in the 2026-06-25 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
BEA May 2026 core PCE price index (ex food and energy) year-over-year change is greater than or equal to 3.3 percent on the 2026-06-26 release
Per-call score: 0.0784. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
Came true
80% confidencemade 2026-06-24deadline 2026-06-27graded 2026-06-28
Micron FQ3-26 (reported after the Jun 24 2026 close) confirms the AI-memory pricing story in actuals: reported adjusted gross margin comes in at or above 80%, consistent with the ~81% guide
First appeared in the 2026-06-24 brief.
Show the exact grading rule
TRUE if Micron reported (non-GAAP/adjusted) gross margin for fiscal Q3-2026 is at least 80.0 percent per its earnings release; else FALSE. Resolve from the official Micron release / SEC 8-K.
Per-call score: 0.04. Lower means the stated confidence fit reality more closely on this one call.
In Progress
Still being tested
These are the live calls still waiting to meet their deadline.
Still open
55% confidencemade 2026-07-15deadline 2026-08-20
June's energy-driven inflation relief partly reverses: the July 2026 headline CPI annual rate comes in above June's 3.5% as the renewed Iran/Hormuz oil spike feeds back into energy prices.
First appeared in the 2026-07-15 brief.
Still open
45% confidencemade 2026-08-04deadline 2026-08-21
SpaceX shares do NOT absorb the 2026-08-06 lock-up expiry cleanly: SPCX trades 10 pct or more below its 2026-08-03 close within the following three weeks
First appeared in the 2026-08-04 brief.
Still open
55% confidencemade 2026-08-06deadline 2026-08-21
The US and Iran publicly announce an interim agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial transit on or before 2026-08-20
First appeared in the 2026-08-06 brief.
Still open
40% confidencemade 2026-08-06deadline 2026-08-21
The additional 50 percent US tariffs on Canadian goods take effect as scheduled on 2026-08-19 without a deferral, suspension or broad carve-out deal
First appeared in the 2026-08-06 brief.
Still open
62% confidencemade 2026-08-10deadline 2026-08-21
The three Section 338 proclamations imposing 50 percent tariffs on certain Canadian dairy, motor-vehicle and alcoholic-beverage imports take effect as scheduled at 12:01am ET on 2026-08-19, without deferral, suspension, rescission or a reduction of the 50 percent rate.
First appeared in the 2026-08-10 brief.
Still open
22% confidencemade 2026-07-24deadline 2026-08-23
AI-buildout market-structure disconfirmer: the concentrated mega-cap/AI leadership breaks down into a broad equity drawdown - S&P 500 falls 10%+ from its 2026 peak within ~30 days as the Alphabet/Tesla-triggered rout deepens
First appeared in the 2026-07-24 brief.
Still open
25% confidencemade 2026-08-20deadline 2026-08-24
The August 2026 S&P Global US flash composite PMI, released 2026-08-21, prints at or above the July flash reading of 53.6
First appeared in the 2026-08-20 brief.
Still open
68% confidencemade 2026-08-13deadline 2026-08-25
HD next-quarter diluted EPS yoy direction: down (report ~2026-08-18)
first brief unavailable
Still open
70% confidencemade 2026-08-13deadline 2026-08-27
WMT next-quarter diluted EPS yoy direction: down (report ~2026-08-20)
first brief unavailable
Still open
40% confidencemade 2026-07-11deadline 2026-08-29
US 30-year Treasury yield closes above its current 5.18% 52-week high at least once before 2026-08-29
First appeared in the 2026-07-11 brief.
Still open
40% confidencemade 2026-07-29deadline 2026-08-29
The renewed US-Iran escalation re-tests the energy shock high: Brent front-month settles above USD 100/bbl at least once before 2026-08-29.
First appeared in the 2026-07-29 brief.
Still open
25% confidencemade 2026-07-07deadline 2026-08-31
AI-buildout compute-demand disconfirmer fires: memory pricing rolls over — TrendForce (or an equivalent primary memory-pricing source) reports a month-on-month DECLINE in DRAM contract prices for a month in Q3 2026, signalling AI/memory demand softening rather than the record demand Samsung just reported
First appeared in the 2026-07-07 brief.
Still open
20% confidencemade 2026-07-20deadline 2026-08-31
AI-buildout financing leg cracks: US high-yield credit spreads widen materially from today's ~2.71pp as equity/materials/consumer-demand weakness broadens into credit
First appeared in the 2026-07-20 brief.
Still open
88% confidencemade 2026-08-19deadline 2026-09-02
CRM next-quarter diluted EPS yoy direction: up (report ~2026-08-26)
first brief unavailable
Still open
95% confidencemade 2026-08-19deadline 2026-09-02
NVDA next-quarter diluted EPS yoy direction: up (report ~2026-08-26)
first brief unavailable
Still open
25% confidencemade 2026-08-03deadline 2026-09-04
PEACE-DIVIDEND DISCONFIRMER for the energy/critical-commodities thesis: the Middle East supply premium drains out of crude, with Brent front-month settling below USD 75.00 per barrel on at least one day on or before 2026-09-04.
First appeared in the 2026-08-03 brief.
Still open
60% confidencemade 2026-08-03deadline 2026-09-04
The joint US-Japan yen intervention holds: the dollar does not re-take 160 yen on or before 2026-09-04.
First appeared in the 2026-08-03 brief.
Still open
88% confidencemade 2026-08-04deadline 2026-09-04
US high-yield credit spreads stay non-stressed through early September 2026
First appeared in the 2026-08-04 brief.
Still open
40% confidencemade 2026-08-05deadline 2026-09-04
Market breadth genuinely broadens rather than narrowing back to megacap leadership: the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) outperforms the cap-weighted S&P 500 (SPY) on total return from the 2026-08-04 close to the 2026-09-04 close
First appeared in the 2026-08-05 brief.
Still open
55% confidencemade 2026-08-19deadline 2026-09-15
SOVEREIGN AUCTION DEMAND (sovereign_rates_stress / auction_funding - the auction-tail axis, which no open prediction covers: P-0090 is term premium and the duration-rally disconfirmer, P-0076 is the equity spillover, P-0092 is JGB yields): weak long-bond demand persists rather than the highest yields since 2001 pulling buyers back in.
First appeared in the 2026-08-19 brief.
Still open
45% confidencemade 2026-08-03deadline 2026-09-17
The FOMC RAISES the federal funds target range at its 2026-09-15/16 meeting, despite the oil-price rollover that followed the Iran de-escalation.
First appeared in the 2026-08-03 brief.
Still open
45% confidencemade 2026-08-04deadline 2026-09-17
The Federal Reserve RAISES the federal funds target range at the 15-16 September 2026 FOMC meeting
First appeared in the 2026-08-04 brief.
Still open
68% confidencemade 2026-07-03deadline 2026-09-18
The Fed does NOT raise rates at its September 2026 FOMC meeting (target range held or lowered), consistent with soft June payrolls trimming hike odds
First appeared in the 2026-07-03 brief.
Still open
60% confidencemade 2026-08-13deadline 2026-09-18
REAL PURCHASING POWER (an axis no open prediction covers - the product goal is protecting real savings, not nominal returns): the BLS Real Earnings release for August 2026, scheduled 2026-09-11, again reports real average hourly earnings for all employees DOWN year-over-year (a negative 12-month change), i.e. a second consecutive month in which the average paycheck lost ground to prices
First appeared in the 2026-08-13 brief.
Still open
65% confidencemade 2026-06-23deadline 2026-09-30
The equity-market panic in memory-chip names overshoots the fundamentals: memory contract pricing does NOT roll over despite the SK Hynix/Samsung/Micron crash
First appeared in the 2026-06-23 brief.
Still open
20% confidencemade 2026-06-26deadline 2026-09-30
AI-buildout financing-stress disconfirmer fires: US high-yield credit spreads widen materially (signaling AI-capex funding stress) rather than staying tight through the AI/tech equity sell-off.
First appeared in the 2026-06-26 brief.
Still open
20% confidencemade 2026-07-10deadline 2026-09-30
AI-memory demand disconfirmer fires: a major memory maker cuts forward HBM/memory demand or pricing guidance, or DRAM/HBM contract prices roll over, signalling the AI-buildout compute-demand thesis is weakening
First appeared in the 2026-07-10 brief.
Still open
15% confidencemade 2026-07-11deadline 2026-09-30
AI-memory compute-demand disconfirmer fires: a major memory maker (Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron) or TrendForce reports a month-over-month DECLINE in DRAM contract prices before 2026-09-30, signalling the memory supercycle rolling over
First appeared in the 2026-07-11 brief.
Still open
15% confidencemade 2026-07-15deadline 2026-09-30
A major AI-compute-chain company (NVDA, ASML, TSMC, SK Hynix, Micron, or Samsung) issues a downward revision to prior full-year revenue guidance, signaling the AI-capex demand thesis is breaking rather than strengthening as ASML's raised guidance implies.
First appeared in the 2026-07-15 brief.
Still open
15% confidencemade 2026-07-23deadline 2026-09-30
AI compute-demand rolls over near-term despite hyperscalers raising capex: a top-3 memory maker (SK Hynix, Micron, or Samsung) cuts forward guidance or reports a sequential quarterly revenue decline, OR TrendForce reports a sequential decline in contract DRAM or HBM pricing, before 2026-09-30
First appeared in the 2026-07-23 brief.
Still open
70% confidencemade 2026-07-28deadline 2026-09-30
The four-decade-weak yen does not become a disorderly global-stress transmitter this quarter: USD/JPY does not trade above 170 before 2026-09-30.
First appeared in the 2026-07-28 brief.
Still open
15% confidencemade 2026-07-30deadline 2026-09-30
AI-buildout CRITICAL-MATERIALS disconfirmer fires (an axis no open prediction covers - not memory pricing, not financing, not market structure): copper input-price softness appears, i.e. LME 3-month copper closes more than 10 percent below its 2026-07-28 close on at least one day before 2026-09-30, as reported by the LME or a primary metals source.
First appeared in the 2026-07-30 brief.
Still open
78% confidencemade 2026-07-31deadline 2026-09-30
The July equity dislocation stays contained in equities and does NOT transmit to US corporate credit: ICE BofA US High Yield OAS (FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2) stays below 4.00 percentage points on every daily observation through 2026-09-30
First appeared in the 2026-07-31 brief.
Still open
20% confidencemade 2026-08-04deadline 2026-09-30
AI-buildout DISCONFIRMER: the feared China-driven memory glut becomes visible in actual prices - a named memory-pricing tracker reports falling DRAM contract prices before end-September 2026
First appeared in the 2026-08-04 brief.
Still open
22% confidencemade 2026-08-10deadline 2026-09-30
SPILLOVER CONFIRMATION for the sovereign-rates-stress thesis: the long end drags equities rather than being absorbed by them - the 30-year Treasury yield reaches 5.25 percent or higher and the S&P 500 then falls at least 5 percent below its 2026-08-07 record close within the following 10 trading sessions, on or before 2026-09-30.
First appeared in the 2026-08-10 brief.
Still open
18% confidencemade 2026-08-12deadline 2026-09-30
ENERGY / SHIPPING DISCONFIRMER (energy_critical_commodities, physical_supply + policy_geopolitics, an axis no open prediction covers): the second chokepoint reopens rather than tightening - Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb traffic recovers materially from the post-blockade collapse despite the 2026-08-11 fatal Houthi strike on the Tihamah.
First appeared in the 2026-08-12 brief.
Still open
40% confidencemade 2026-08-12deadline 2026-09-30
RATES-TO-HOUSEHOLD TRANSMISSION (sovereign_rates_stress, an axis no open prediction covers - household borrowing cost, not the term premium itself or the equity spillover already in P-0076): the long end's move keeps passing into what savers actually pay, with the 30-year mortgage survey rate breaking above its trailing-year high.
First appeared in the 2026-08-12 brief.
Still open
12% confidencemade 2026-08-14deadline 2026-09-30
ENERGY DISCONFIRMER (energy_critical_commodities / macro_spillover - the 'disinflation resumes, energy shock fades' axis the coverage audit names, and one no open prediction covers: P-0061/P-0051/P-0079 are all Brent-price or shipping-transit claims, P-0083 is wages-vs-prices, P-0058 is core GOODS): the energy shock washes out of the headline consumer number rather than deepening - US all-items CPI-U year-over-year falls to 3.0 percent or LOWER in the August 2026 report, down from 3.4 percent in July.
First appeared in the 2026-08-14 brief.
Still open
60% confidencemade 2026-08-17deadline 2026-09-30
CONSUMER-SPENDING MOMENTUM (an axis no open prediction covers — P-0083 is wages-vs-prices, P-0058 is core GOODS inflation, P-0081/P-0082 are fenced single-name probe calls): July's 0.6 percent drop is a one-month air pocket rather than the start of a consumer contraction — US advance retail and food services sales rise month-over-month in the August 2026 report.
First appeared in the 2026-08-17 brief.
Still open
25% confidencemade 2026-08-18deadline 2026-09-30
TERM-PREMIUM DISCONFIRMER (sovereign_rates_stress / term_premium_curve - the 'duration rallies cleanly' axis the coverage audit names as this thesis falsifier, and one no open prediction covers: P-0076 is the equity spillover, P-0080 is the mortgage pass-through, neither tests whether the long-end move itself unwinds): the 2026-08-18 long-end selloff reverses cleanly rather than persisting - the US 30-year Treasury yield falls back by at least 25 basis points from its 2026-08-18 level of 5.33 percent.
First appeared in the 2026-08-18 brief.
Still open
80% confidencemade 2026-08-18deadline 2026-09-30
ECB POLICY (an axis no open prediction covers - P-0062 and P-0067 are both the US FOMC; this is the euro-area leg of the same energy-inflation impulse): the European Central Bank RAISES its deposit facility rate at its September 2026 monetary-policy Governing Council meeting. Market pricing cited in evidence implies roughly 90 percent, a single-source figure the lessons file warns against treating as consensus, so this is logged below the implied odds.
First appeared in the 2026-08-18 brief.
Still open
62% confidencemade 2026-08-18deadline 2026-09-30
JAPAN LONG END (an axis no open prediction covers - P-0063 is the yen exchange rate, not JGB yields; Japan is the world's largest historical source of cheap duration, so its long end repricing is a distinct transmission channel): Japan's 10-year government bond yield, at a three-decade high near 2.95 percent on 2026-08-18, keeps rising and reaches 3.00 percent or higher.
First appeared in the 2026-08-18 brief.
Still open
30% confidencemade 2026-08-19deadline 2026-09-30
AI-BUILDOUT MARKET-STRUCTURE DISCONFIRMER (ai_buildout / market_structure - the 'crowding unwinds without stress, equal-weight keeps pace' axis, which no open prediction covers: P-0084 is compute_demand inventory, P-0088 is financing/issuance, P-0076 is the rates-to-equity spillover): the AI-leadership derating that hit every leg of the buildout chain on 2026-08-18 resolves BENIGNLY rather than dragging the broad market down with it.
First appeared in the 2026-08-19 brief.
Still open
50% confidencemade 2026-08-20deadline 2026-09-30
Samsung Electronics publicly announces a shareholder-return programme (buyback and/or special dividend) of at least 20 trillion won on or before 2026-09-30, validating the speculation that drove its 9.49 percent move on 2026-08-20
First appeared in the 2026-08-20 brief.
Still open
60% confidencemade 2026-06-22deadline 2026-10-15
AI is structurally compressing IT-services demand (not just a cyclical pause): Accenture's managed-services new bookings decline year-over-year again at its next quarterly print
First appeared in the 2026-06-23 brief.
Still open
70% confidencemade 2026-06-25deadline 2026-10-15
Micron FQ4-26 revenue lands within or above its guided range (at least USD 48 billion)
First appeared in the 2026-06-25 brief.
Still open
70% confidencemade 2026-08-01deadline 2026-10-15
US PCE core goods inflation stays at or above 2.0% year-over-year in the August 2026 reading.
first brief unavailable
Still open
20% confidencemade 2026-07-16deadline 2026-10-31
AI-buildout demand thesis disconfirmed: despite TSMC record Q2 and raised 2026 capex, a major AI logic/foundry or GPU vendor (TSMC, NVIDIA, AMD, or Broadcom) cuts its forward revenue or capex guidance before 2026-10-31
First appeared in the 2026-07-16 brief.
Still open
80% confidencemade 2026-07-28deadline 2026-10-31
The reported Nvidia backstop for OpenAI does NOT convert into a disclosed binding commitment at anything like the reported scale: Nvidia does not disclose an aggregate binding guarantee/backstop to OpenAI or its data-centre vehicles of USD 100 billion or more.
First appeared in the 2026-07-28 brief.
Still open
12% confidencemade 2026-07-31deadline 2026-10-31
DISCONFIRMER (ai_buildout / compute_demand): DRAM contract prices roll over - i.e. a credible industry source reports a quarter-on-quarter DECLINE in average DRAM contract pricing for any quarter through Q4 2026
First appeared in the 2026-07-31 brief.
Still open
35% confidencemade 2026-08-20deadline 2026-10-31
The 2026-08-19 long-end buyback expansion is not enough: on or before 2026-10-31 the US Treasury publicly announces a FURTHER expansion of long-end support - either a maximum operation size above 4 billion USD, or an extension of the programme beyond 2026-11-04, or a new long-end support facility
First appeared in the 2026-08-20 brief.
Still open
72% confidencemade 2026-07-31deadline 2026-11-15
Apple's September-quarter (fiscal Q4 2026) adjusted gross margin comes in at or below 47.5%, confirming that the memory cost shock is passing through to consumer-device economics rather than being absorbed
First appeared in the 2026-07-31 brief.
Still open
65% confidencemade 2026-08-01deadline 2026-11-15
Apple's REPORTED fiscal-Q4 2026 (September quarter) gross margin lands inside its guided 47-48% range.
first brief unavailable
Still open
45% confidencemade 2026-08-21deadline 2026-11-15
The World Gold Council Gold Demand Trends report covering Q3 2026 reports central-bank net gold purchases of at least 200 tonnes
First appeared in the 2026-08-21 brief.
Still open
22% confidencemade 2026-08-13deadline 2026-11-20
DISCONFIRMER (ai_buildout / compute_demand, INVENTORY-BUILD axis - deliberately NOT memory pricing, guide cuts by NVDA/ASML/TSMC, or critical materials, which open claims P-0034/0036/0042/0052/0054/0064 already cover): Supermicro's record backlog fails to convert to cash, and its fiscal Q1 2027 report (September quarter, expected early November 2026) shows net sales BELOW the low end of its own 14.5bn-15.5bn guidance issued 2026-08-11. Rationale: FY26 operating cash flow was NEGATIVE USD 6.81bn on an 8.88bn inventory build, so the demand signal is currently an inventory and receivables signal financed by capital markets
First appeared in the 2026-08-13 brief.
Still open
60% confidencemade 2026-08-15deadline 2026-11-30
The US emergency oil reserve keeps draining: EIA weekly data shows Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude stocks at or below 260 million barrels in at least one weekly report through late November 2026.
first brief unavailable
Still open
62% confidencemade 2026-08-17deadline 2026-11-30
AI-BUILDOUT FINANCING DISCONFIRMER (ai_buildout / financing — the 'issuance absorbed at tight spreads on hyperscaler paper' axis the coverage audit names, and one no open prediction covers: P-0056 and P-0066 are BROAD HY-index claims, not AI-issuer-specific funding terms): AI-dedicated debt keeps clearing cheaply rather than repricing — a single AI-datacenter or AI-chip-dedicated debt financing of at least USD 10bn prices on or before 2026-11-30 and is reported oversubscribed or at/inside initial price talk.
First appeared in the 2026-08-17 brief.
Still open
82% confidencemade 2026-06-26deadline 2026-12-31
OpenAI does not complete (price) a public IPO in calendar 2026, consistent with the reported lean toward 2027.
First appeared in the 2026-06-26 brief.
Still open
40% confidencemade 2026-07-28deadline 2026-12-31
AI-buildout supply/chokepoint disconfirmer fires on a NEW axis (Chinese tool independence, not memory pricing): a domestically produced Chinese immersion-DUV lithography system is confirmed DELIVERED to and accepted by a Chinese fab (SMIC, Hua Hong or CXMT) during 2026, materially weakening the ASML-chokepoint premise the AI-buildout thesis rests on.
First appeared in the 2026-07-28 brief.
Still open
85% confidencemade 2026-08-15deadline 2026-12-31
Congress does not fund a real refill this year: no US law enacted through 2026 appropriates 1 billion dollars or more specifically for buying crude oil to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
first brief unavailable
Still open
85% confidencemade 2026-08-22deadline 2026-12-31
AI-BUILDOUT USEFUL-LIFE DISCONFIRMER (ai_buildout / financing — the depreciation-schedule axis, which no open prediction covers: P-0048 is guarantee scale, P-0088 is issuance pricing/absorption, P-0084 is inventory build, P-0095 is market structure): the depreciation assumption that compute financing rests on is NOT revised down — no US hyperscaler among Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle discloses a SHORTENED estimated useful life for servers or AI/network compute equipment in an SEC filing through 2026-12-31.
first brief unavailable
Still open
80% confidencemade 2026-08-01deadline 2027-01-31
TrendForce's 4Q26 server DRAM contract-price assessment reports a further quarter-on-quarter INCREASE (any positive QoQ).
first brief unavailable
Still open
75% confidencemade 2026-08-22deadline 2027-01-31
AI-BUILDOUT GUARANTEE-STACK DISCONFIRMER (ai_buildout / financing — the vendor-backstop SCALING axis, distinct from P-0048, which tests Nvidia's OpenAI backstop, and from P-0088, which tests whether AI debt prices cheaply): the disclosed vendor guarantee does not scale quickly along Bank of America's modelled path — Broadcom does not disclose aggregate maximum loss exposure above USD 50bn under the AI XPV platform or any successor compute-financing vehicle in an SEC filing through 2027-01-31.
first brief unavailable
Still open
55% confidencemade 2026-08-01deadline 2027-02-28
DISCONFIRMER: full-year 2026 worldwide PC shipments decline by LESS than 8% year-over-year, i.e. Gartner's -10.4% forecast proves too pessimistic.
first brief unavailable