| | Risk Intelligence Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard Gray-Rhino Watch · Plain English 2026-06-30 · 8 run(s) · practice portfolio, read-only |
Global stress gauge
🟡 Watch
Some gauges are elevated, but none is at stress.
🟢 3 calm · 🟡 4 watch · 🔴 0 stress
The bottom line, in plain English
Today is a Watch day. Risk is rising enough that a regular saver should slow down and think about protection before taking more risk.
Risk level today
🟡 Watch — caution; risk is rising, but this is not panic
What this means
Risk is rising enough that a regular saver should slow down and think about protection before taking more risk.
What to keep in mind today
- Do not chase a bounce just because prices fell.
- Do not use borrowed money or leverage to add risk.
- Check whether too much of your money is tied to one volatile stock, sector, or theme.
Why we think this
The latest logged stress gauge is Watch, based on 3 calm, 4 watch, 0 stress readings.
What we still do not know
A Watch day does not tell us yet whether this will fade quickly or turn into a longer drawdown.
Trend-following is ahead at $100,596 — that's +2.6% versus simply buying and holding the basket.
Leaderboard
Ordered by current value today, so the first card is the current leader.
Rank 1 · current leader
Trend-following
holds only the names currently trending up; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $100,596 |
| return | +0.6% |
| vs. buy & hold | +2.6% |
| max drawdown | -4.3% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 39 |
Rank 2
Buy-the-dip in steps
keeps cash in reserve and buys the basket in steps as it falls from its peak.
| value (NAV) | $98,969 |
| return | -1.0% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.9% |
| max drawdown | -2.4% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 72 |
Rank 3
Top-3 momentum
rides the three strongest names of the last few months; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $98,518 |
| return | -1.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.5% |
| max drawdown | -8.5% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 25 |
Rank 4
Equal weight
keeps an equal amount in every name, evening it out each run.
| value (NAV) | $98,253 |
| return | -1.7% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.2% |
| max drawdown | -4.0% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 72 |
Rank 5 · benchmark
Buy & hold
buys the whole basket once and just holds it.
| value (NAV) | $98,010 |
| return | -1.9% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.0% |
| max drawdown | -4.1% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 9 |
— only a few sessions in, so the ranking is mostly noise, not skill yet; volatility & Sharpe need a few days of moves and appear once there's enough history.
Leaderboard comparison
benchmark
Buy & hold — $98,010 now
current leader
Trend-following — $100,596 now
strongest challenger
Buy-the-dip in steps — $98,969 now
Comparison limited to the benchmark, current leader, and strongest challenger so the shared dashboard stays readable on mobile. Shared axis $96,564–$101,217 · 2026-06-19 → 2026-06-30
Jargon, in plain words
value (NAV) — what this strategy's slice of the practice $100,000 would be worth today.
return — how much it's up or down since we started tracking.
vs. buy & hold — how it compares with simply buying and holding the basket — a plus means it's ahead of that.
max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom drop it has sat through so far.
volatility — how bumpy the ride is — a bigger number means larger day-to-day swings.
Sharpe — how much reward you got for that bumpiness — higher is better; it needs a few days of moves before it means anything.
trades — how many times the strategy has bought or sold to follow its rule.
How we've done so far
This is a new system still building its evidence. So far 4 of its forecasts have been graded against what actually happened — far too few to judge skill (a fair read needs dozens).
3 of 4 leaned the right way, and its calibration score is 0.1482 — where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a 50/50 coin-flip guess. On just 4 calls that's encouraging, not proof. 20 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-07-10.
Most recent graded call: “Labor-cooling thesis disconfirmer fires: June nonfarm payrolls re-accelerate rather than…” — it put 30% on it, and that's how it played out (right).
Lower is better; a genuinely good system stays well below 0.25 over many calls. A self-check score, not a promise.
What each strategy holds now
Trend-following
HYG, MU, SMH, SPY, TLT · fully invested
Buy-the-dip in steps
the whole basket · ~40% cash
Top-3 momentum
MU, SMH, SPY · fully invested
Equal weight
the whole basket · fully invested
Buy & hold
the whole basket · fully invested
Current positions shown so you can see what each line is actually exposed to.
What the practice book did (2026-06-30)
Trend-following
bought MU, SPY, TLT, HYG; sold SMH
Buy-the-dip in steps
bought GLD, BTC-USD, TLT, XLE, HYG; sold NVDA, MU, SMH, SPY
Top-3 momentum
bought MU, SPY; sold SMH
Equal weight
bought GLD, BTC-USD, TLT, XLE, HYG; sold NVDA, MU, SMH, SPY
Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
All numbers come directly from the portfolio engine.
Research only — not financial advice. The practice portfolio is for learning only; this is a read-only risk briefing meant to help explain risk, never tell anyone what to buy or sell.
Project snapshot — practice portfolio updated: 2026-06-30. Republished 2026-07-06 with corrected closes.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports