| | Risk Intelligence Market Sentinel — $100K Dashboard Gray-Rhino Watch · Plain English 2026-06-23 · 3 run(s) · practice portfolio, read-only |
Global stress gauge
🔴 Stress
Multiple gauges are flashing at once.
🟢 3 calm · 🟡 4 watch · 🔴 2 stress
The bottom line, in plain English
Today is a Stress day. Conditions are strained enough that capital protection and flexibility should come before aggressive risk-taking.
Risk level today
🔴 Stress — risk is high; this is a defensive day
What this means
Conditions are strained enough that capital protection and flexibility should come before aggressive risk-taking.
What to keep in mind today
- Do not use leverage or speculation to try to win losses back quickly.
- Do not mistake a sharp drop for an automatic buying opportunity.
- Prioritize liquidity and near-term cash needs.
Why we think this
The latest logged stress gauge is Stress, based on 3 calm, 4 watch, 2 stress readings.
What we still do not know
Stress tells us conditions are dangerous now, but not whether the damage will stay contained or spread.
Buy-the-dip in steps is ahead at $98,523 — that's +1.1% versus simply buying and holding the basket.
Leaderboard
Ordered by current value today, so the first card is the current leader.
Rank 1 · current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps
keeps cash in reserve and buys the basket in steps as it falls from its peak.
| value (NAV) | $98,523 |
| return | -1.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | +1.1% |
| max drawdown | -1.9% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 27 |
Rank 2
Equal weight
keeps an equal amount in every name, evening it out each run.
| value (NAV) | $97,527 |
| return | -2.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.1% |
| max drawdown | -3.2% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 27 |
Rank 3 · benchmark
Buy & hold
buys the whole basket once and just holds it.
| value (NAV) | $97,451 |
| return | -2.5% |
| vs. buy & hold | +0.0% |
| max drawdown | -3.3% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 9 |
Rank 4
Trend-following
holds only the names currently trending up; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $96,564 |
| return | -3.4% |
| vs. buy & hold | -0.9% |
| max drawdown | -4.3% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 17 |
Rank 5
Top-3 momentum
rides the three strongest names of the last few months; the rest sits in cash.
| value (NAV) | $94,060 |
| return | -5.9% |
| vs. buy & hold | -3.4% |
| max drawdown | -8.1% |
| volatility | — |
| Sharpe | — |
| trades | 9 |
— only a few sessions in, so the ranking is mostly noise, not skill yet; volatility & Sharpe need a few days of moves and appear once there's enough history.
Leaderboard comparison
benchmark
Buy & hold — $97,451 now
current leader
Buy-the-dip in steps — $98,523 now
strongest challenger
Equal weight — $97,527 now
Comparison limited to the benchmark, current leader, and strongest challenger so the shared dashboard stays readable on mobile. Shared axis $97,451–$100,763 · 2026-06-19 → 2026-06-23
Jargon, in plain words
value (NAV) — what this strategy's slice of the practice $100,000 would be worth today.
return — how much it's up or down since we started tracking.
vs. buy & hold — how it compares with simply buying and holding the basket — a plus means it's ahead of that.
max drawdown — the worst peak-to-bottom drop it has sat through so far.
volatility — how bumpy the ride is — a bigger number means larger day-to-day swings.
Sharpe — how much reward you got for that bumpiness — higher is better; it needs a few days of moves before it means anything.
trades — how many times the strategy has bought or sold to follow its rule.
How we've done so far
This is a new system still building its evidence. So far 4 of its forecasts have been graded against what actually happened — far too few to judge skill (a fair read needs dozens).
3 of 4 leaned the right way, and its calibration score is 0.1482 — where 0 is perfect and 0.25 is a 50/50 coin-flip guess. On just 4 calls that's encouraging, not proof. 20 more forecasts are in progress, the next graded around 2026-07-10.
Most recent graded call: “Labor-cooling thesis disconfirmer fires: June nonfarm payrolls re-accelerate rather than…” — it put 30% on it, and that's how it played out (right).
Lower is better; a genuinely good system stays well below 0.25 over many calls. A self-check score, not a promise.
What each strategy holds now
Buy-the-dip in steps
the whole basket · ~40% cash
Equal weight
the whole basket · fully invested
Buy & hold
the whole basket · fully invested
Trend-following
MU, SMH, SPY, TLT · fully invested
Top-3 momentum
MU, NVDA, SMH · fully invested
Current positions shown so you can see what each line is actually exposed to.
What the practice book did (2026-06-23)
Buy-the-dip in steps
bought NVDA, MU, SMH, BTC-USD; sold GLD, SPY, TLT, XLE, HYG
Equal weight
bought NVDA, MU, SMH; sold GLD, BTC-USD, SPY, TLT, XLE, HYG
Trend-following
bought MU, SMH, SPY, TLT; sold HYG
Top-3 momentum
bought MU; sold NVDA, SMH
Each line is a simulated strategy's own move inside the practice portfolio — a record of what its rule did, not a suggestion to buy or sell anything.
All numbers come directly from the portfolio engine.
Research only — not financial advice. The practice portfolio is for learning only; this is a read-only risk briefing meant to help explain risk, never tell anyone what to buy or sell.
Project snapshot — practice portfolio updated: 2026-06-23. Republished 2026-07-06 with corrected closes.
Past briefs & dashboards: market-sentinel-lyart.vercel.app/reports